Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control.
When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.
A paper that reports simulations of the incremental cost-effectiveness of well-conducted mass screening and treatment (MSAT) campaigns as a strategy for P. falciparum malaria disease-burden reduction in settings with varying receptivity (ability of the combined vector population in a setting to transmit disease) and access to case management.