The experiments and the model described in this study may help scientists studying how to prevent increased spread of malaria in communities where mosquitoes are becoming resistant to insecticide-treated nets.
Reducing the burden of malaria is a global priority, but financial constraints mean that available resources must be allocated rationally to maximise their effect. [This study] aimed to develop a model to estimate the most efficient (ie, minimum cost) ordering of interventions to reduce malaria burden and transmission. [It] also aimed to estimate the efficiency of different spatial scales of implementation.
This study used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios. These findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased.
This article, published in Nature found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. Interventions have averted an estimated 663 (542–753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted).
Author: Battle KE, Bennett A, Bhatt S, Bisanzio D, Briet O, Cameron E, Cibulskis RE, Cohen JM, Dalrymple U, Eckhoff P, Eisele TP, Fergus CA, Gething PW, Griffin JT, Hay SI, Henry A, Lindgren F, Lynch M, Mappin B, Moyes CL, Murray CLJ, Penny MA, Smith DL, Smith TA, Weiss J, Wenger E, Yukich J
Publication date: September 2015
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa weakened health systems, threatening the gains in malaria control achieved over the past decade. This article quantified this additional indirect burden of Ebola.
Malaria and other diseases are often highly seasonal and some interventions have time-varying effects, meaning that simple reproduction number formulae cannot be used. This study expands on existing methods to calculate the effect size of repeated rounds of mass drug administration, indoor residual spraying and other interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria in seasonal settings in Africa, determining that the optimal time of year for drug administration is in the low season, whereas the best time for indoor residual spraying or a vaccine which reduces infection rates is just before the high season.
Author: Griffin JT
Publication date: January 2015
Source: PLOS Computational Biology